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The IMF's Review of the US Fed is Particularly Critical
federal_reserve_3.jpg Home Page News Page In a normal review of the US, the IMF recently called on the Federal Reserve to drop its dot-plot tool and replace it with a single staff forecast, like the...
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Is China Not Growing at its Potential Due to Monetary Policy?
yuan_bank_note.jpg Home Page News Page There is a debate going on about the appropriateness of monetary easing in China. Monetary policy was excessively tight in 2014 but started loosening more...
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Yellen Moves Yields
federal_reserve_3.jpg Home Page News Page Those regional Federal Reserve banks that want to hike the discount rate are gradually increasing. Last month, the Richmond Fed joined four other regional Fed...
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Central Bank Monetary Policies Going Their Own Way
monetary_policy_2.jpg Home Page News Page The US dollar remains bid. Yellen's comments and the Beige Book signal that the Federal Reserve is still on track to raise rates this year. In contrast, as...
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The ECB Leaves Policy Unchanged, but Greece Gets More ELA
ecb.jpg Home Page News Page The ECB left policy unchanged. The economic assessment was unchanged, in line with the staff forecasts made last month. The asset purchases continue to go smoothly....
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Survey Says: September Rate Hike
federal_reserve_4.jpg Home Page News Page The latest Wall Street Journal survey found that 82% of economists expect a Fed hike in September, completely dismissing a July hike, as this Great Graphic...
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Market News Lightens Up
hot_air_balloon_2.jpg Home Page News Page The light news stream has spurred some position squaring by short-term momentum traders. This is giving the dollar a somewhat heavier tone, and weighing on...
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Should the Bank of Japan Consider the U.S. Fed Method?
japan_piggy_bank.jpg Home Page News Page The Bank of Japan is engaged in the most aggressive asset purchases, and yet it has largely failed to lift inflation. National consumer prices for June will...
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The FOMC's Statement is Unlikely to Provide any Fireworks
fireworks_2.jpg Home Page News Page While the markets wait for no man, the FOMC is a different story. Janet Yellen expects to lead the Federal Reserve into taking the first step toward normalizing...
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The FOMC Needs Further Labor Market Improvment
central_bank.jpg Home Page News Page The Federal Reserve provided limited forward guidance in today's statement. It said that it "anticipates that it will be appropriate to raise the target range for...
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Will They or Won't They Raise Rates?
federal_reserve_3.jpg Home Page News Page The Federal Reserve could be six weeks away from raising rates. The FOMC statement from the end of last month appeared to have lowered the bar of a move. It...
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Mind the (Interest Rate) Gap
uk_risk.jpg Home Page News Page When the men and women of the committee that sets UK interest rates get together these days, they are dealing with a deceptively simple question. Rates will go up, but...
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India's Reserve Bank Independence is Endangered
india_inflations.jpg Home Page News Page India’s Reserve Bank has been doing a commendable job of maintaining price stability and securing Indian markets from external shocks. But a proposal from the...
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Home, Home on the (Fed's Target) Range
range.jpg Home Page News Page Conditioning has trained us to be skeptical when someone says this time is different. It often means to justify some excess. However, we still need to be sensitive to...
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Can the Employment Report Sway the Fed?
jobs_3.jpg Home Page News Page The dovish signals from the ECB failed to offer lasting support for the global capital markets. Asia shares slumped, with the Nikkei falling to new lows since February...
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What if the Fed does not Raise Rates?
fomc.jpg Home Page News Page Seven years ago today, following frenzied weekend meetings, Lehman filed for bankruptcy. It confirmed the end of an era in a way that Bear Stearns demise had only hinted....
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Today Most Likely will not be a 'Ratepocolypse'
federal_reserve_4.jpg Home Page News Page The much-awaited FOMC meeting is here. Discussions appear to revolve around to main questions. What should the Fed do and what will they do? The two are...
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Does the Fed Still Wield the Same Influence?
interest_rate.jpg Home Page News Page Markets have been speculating for months about whether the US Federal Reserve would raise interest rates in September. The day has finally arrived, and...
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The Fed Decides to Not to Decide
interest_rate_2.jpg Home Page News Page The Federal Reserve left the Fed funds target at 0-25 bp. It recognized continued improvement in the US economy but raised the level of concern over...
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Fed Speak Began over the Weekend it Continues All Week
fomc_3.jpg Home Page News Page The US dollar started softer in Asia, where Japan is on holiday for the first half of the week, but has come back bid in Europe. The key issues now seem to revolve...
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